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PROJECT

TRIDENT

Analysis of The Limits to Growth on Exo-Planet-3

The Limits to Growth study conducted on the terrestrial Exo-3; models humanity’s consumption, growth and expansion on this potential new world and provides solutions to ensure that our collective past mistreatment of earth is not repeated.

In the beginning, God created the heaven and the earth. And the earth was without form, and void, and darkness was upon the face of the deep. And the Spirit of God moved upon the face of the waters. And God said, let there be light: and there was light. And God saw the light, that it was good: and God divided the light from the darkness.

William Anders, APOLLO 8, Dec 25th, 1968

The Project on the Predicament of Mankind – The intent of the project is to examine the complex of problems troubling men of all nations: poverty in the midst of plenty; degradation of the environment; loss of faith in institutions; uncontrolled urban spread; insecurity of employment; alienation of youth; rejection of traditional values; and inflation and other monetary and economic disruptions. These seemingly divergent parts make up the “World Problematique”.

The Club of Rome

MISSION

A SMALL STEP

Trident is NASA’s first campaign in accurately assessing a potential terrestrial for recolonisation to establish accurate imaging and data to model potential terrestrial usage, potential production, resource depletion, population growth and pollution management. The proposed World3 Model uses neural networks and birth death-cycles to accurate depict human growth and consumption on a new potential host world and help define how best to create a new system of life.

With these limits to growth, we hope that it will command critical attention and spark debate in all societies about how we can better use this new home. We hope that it will encourage each reader to think through the consequences of continuing to equate growth with progress. And we hope that it will lead thoughtful men and women in all fields of endeavour to consider the need for concerted action now if we are to preserve the habitability of this planet for ourselves and our children.

Trident
spaceprobe
launch,
1971

EXO-1

Stellar Magnitude: 8.05
Distance: 90.04486
GL-LA: 8.7

EXO-2

Stellar Magnitude: 26.602
Distance: 6920
GL-LA: 4

EXO-3

Stellar Magnitude: 8.73
Distance: 50.0248
GL-LA: 9.6

EXO-4

Stellar Magnitude: Unknown
Distance: 396.213
GL-LA: 5.1

EXO-5

Stellar Magnitude: 12.23
Distance: 184.39
GL-LA: 6.3

EXO-6

Stellar Magnitude: 7.305
Distance: 114.5
GL-LA: 2

For which of you, intending to build a tower, sitteth not down first, and counteth the cost, whether he have sufficient to finish it?

LUKE 14:28

Exo-planet-3
taken from trident
28/03/2010

DISCOVERY

EXO-PLANET-3

Trident set out from home in 1971 with it first sending back images of Exo-Planet-3 in 2001. Residing in what is thought to be a goldilocks zone, this terrestrial roughly the same size as earth could offer humanity a new frontier.

Discovery Date
2010

Discovery Method
Trident

Planet Type
Terrestial

Orbital Radius
1.5 AU

Orbital Period
0.365

Eccentricity
0.09

Discovery of terrestrial exoplanets in a vital part of space exploration and the potential future growth of the human species as its unparalleled adventure into the galactic stars. The goals of these expeditions into the void is to identify suitable liveable planets with abundant resources, land availability for population growth and low pollution that could be used as a second home for humanity as all resources have been extinguished from our original source world.

Towards what ultimate point is society tending by its industrial progress? When the progress ceases, in what condition are we to expect that it will leave mankind?

JOHN STUART MILL, 1857

Trident
spaceprobe
landing,
2026

LANDFALL

ONE GIANT LEAP

After reaching Exo-3 and conducting analysis from orbit, a probe was sent to the surface to monitor air, quality and further verify the habitability of this terrestrial. Confirming the amount of arable land as well as space for industrial and population growth and geo-scans of continents for resources, we hope to use the World3 Model to extrapolate potential exponential growth patterns of humanisation.

I do not wish to seem overdramatic, but I can only conclude from the Information that Is available to me as Secretary General, that the Members of the United Nations have perhaps ten years left In which to subordinate their ancient a quarrels and launch global partnership to curb the arms race, to improve the human environment, to defuse the population explosion, and to supply the required momentum to development a efforts. If such global partnership Is not forged within the next decade, then I very much fear that the problems I have mentioned will have reached such staggering proportions that they will be beyond our capacity to control.

U THANT, 1969

ANALYSIS

THE WORLD3 MODEL

A major purpose in constructing the world model has been to determine which, if any, of these behaviour modes will be most characteristic of the world system as it reaches the limits to growth.

Images, data, experiments and analysis projects will help establish if this exoplanet has the correct ratio life for sustained human growth into the year 2100, and what will be needed on this expedition into the stars. The World3 Model will be best used to simulate the liveability and projected exponential growth of continual human life on discovered exoplanets.

People at present think that five sons are not too many and each son has five sons also, and before the death of the grandfather there are already 25 descendants. Therefore, people are more and wealth is less; they work hard and receive little.

HAN FEI-TZU, ca. 500 B.C.

ARABLE LAND

exponential productivity modelling of arable land
use on Exo-3

The total world supply of arable land on Exo-3 is estimated to be around 3.2 billion hectares. The use of the land is matched with the population growth curve and assumes that it will continue to grow, as technology improves helping food production per hectare. As industrialisation and urbanisation increase with population, the model predicts the appropriate amount of land use needed to create a sustainable feedback loop to preserve the optimal amount of biodiversity for the exponential humanisation.

A graph showing different predicted model usage of arable land

NATURAL RESOURCES

Non-renewable natural resources
on exo-3

Assessment of Exo-3 concludes a substantial stockpile of resources that if managed and recycled effectively could provide opportunities for series planetary growth. To ensure proper management the model suggests that a conservative approach to mining be considered to address unnecessary destruction of the natural biosphere.

Resource

Known
Global
Reserves

Static
Index
(years)

Projected Rate
of Growth
(% per year)

High   Av.   Low

Exponential
Index
(years)

Copper

308x10^6 tons


5.8   4.6   3.4

Iron

1x10^11 tons

240


2.3   1.8   1.3

Gold

353x10^6 tons


4.8   4.1   3.4

Platnium

429x109 tons

130


4.5   3.8   3.1

INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT

Modelling of industrial output
on Exo-3

As land usage and population increase’s, industrialisation increases at the same rate to match demand. The model of this proposed growth based on the analysis of Exo-3 predicts total industrialisation by 2051, however this needs to be managed efficiently and with purpose to ensure maximum benefit of land usage spread between, resource collection, agriculture use, room to live and preservation of the biosphere. The model suggests that industrial growth needs to be managed effectively through policy, crushing the desire for profit over sustainable practices, to ensure the survival of humanity on Exo-3. Without major changes to the ways of living experienced on earth, this new potential terrestrial will succumb to our own desire for unlimited growth.

A graph sowing the proposed industrial ouput on Exo-3

POPULATION GROWTH

modelled
birth-death population growth
on Exo-3

The driving factor in growth is resource demand to sustain the population at replacement rate. Should population grow exponentially, other areas such as industry, land use and resource extraction will be required to meet demand. On Exo-3 it’s imperative that all these factors of growth be monitored carefully and limited to best preserve the potential new world as well as place limits on growth.

Although the perspectives of the world’s population may vary, every human concern falls somewhere within a distance and length of space and time. The majority of people are concerned with matters that only affect family and friends over a short period of time. Only a very few people share a global perspective of a planet as connected network of systems. This long-term future dream of a planetary perspective is hoped to be achieved on Exo-3.

A graph showing an exponetial rise in the predicted birth-death model

POLLUTION MANAGEMENT

effect of pollution on human lifetime on Exo-3

The pollution generated by the initial colonisation of Exo-3 will be inevitable, however by ensuring use of renewable technologies and limiting and recycling non-renewable material, pollution risks can be mitigated to lessen the impact on the natural surfaces of the untouched terrestrial planet.

The World3 Model factors in the improvement of all systems over time as technology improves, therefore accounting for the reduction of pollutants being generated as systems improve and become less reliant on dirty methods of extraction, transportation and usage. As the health technology improves as humanity becomes more established on Exo-3, our understanding of the harms of pollutants can be mitigated, however it’s important we acknowledge the harm on the planet as a whole system from a planetary world view.

A graph showing different predicted pollution levels

Most persons think that a state in order to be happy ought to be large; but even if they are right, they have no idea of what is a large and what a small state…. To the size of states there is a limit, as there is to other things, plants, animals, implements; for none of these retain their natural power when they are too large or too small, but they either wholly lose their nature,
or are spoiled.

ARISTOTLE, 322 B.C.

SOLUTIONS

UNTIL 2100

Using the World3 Model in combination with data and analysis of Exo-3, the standard run of quantifying the output of humanity's growth exponentially rises until it ends in overshoot and collapse. Industry grows until the amount of resources it requires is unsustainable. This effects capital growth and agricultural efficiency therefore knocking the whole system out of balancing and shifting age structure and social adjustments. Population then finally decreases when the birth death rate becomes unsustainable due to lack of food and health services.

standard world model run of Exo-3

A graph showing the standard run of the world model

The model is biased to allow growth to continue longer than it can continue in the real world and therefore growth is expected to cease well before 2100, as society breaks down as the natural resources of Exo-3 are diminished and fought over, as the chances for a sustainable new world vanish.

a 2d sphere drawn with lines in a way that looks 3d

THE LIMITS TO GROWTH

As the modelled rate of growth is unsustainable without limits, the Club of Rome and NASA have identified a ‘natural limit’ to be applied to the future society of Exo-3 through a stabilised World3 Model that creates self-imposed limits on population growth, resource and land use and pollution output. With these constraints to a finite system, the rehabilitation of humanity on Exo-3 aims to structure a new society that can apply these policies theorised in the sustainable World3 Model.

stabilised world model run of Exo-3

A graph showing the stabalised run of the world model

1. To achieve sustainability without sudden and uncontrollable collapse a greater emphasis on recycling and technology that conservatively uses non-renewable resources will need to be put in place so that the worlds systems don’t spiral out of control.

2. That the system needs to be capable of satisfying the basic material requirements of all its people equally by balancing the populates of Exo-3 as a whole within line of the other world systems and feedback loops. This can only be achieved through technical advances and social policies that encourage the quality of life of all beings, systems and things on Exo-3.

In the circumference of a circle the beginning and end are common.

HERACLITUS, 500 B.C.

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Designed and written by Jack Hansen
Typefaces: DarkmodeOff & P22Typewriter
Images: NASA Intergalactic Multimedia Collections
Graphs: Recreated from The Limits to Growth

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Republishing the global call to action of The Limits to Growth addresses my frustration with the worldwide response to the initial study, as well as the countless others conducted on exponential growth and consumption for the past 50 odd years. What if we need to find a second Earth? What if we do? What if we go about things differently…

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What if we still haven’t learnt the lessons from The Limits to Growth?

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